What a week ...

The market has been very "wild" lately. EUR looked to be bottoming out, but it plunged lower instead ... killing traders who longed the EUR. Similarly for the GBPUSD. This plunge was likely due to better than expected fundamental news for the USD.

I guess I was luck that I did not manage to enter any trade to long the EUR.

For the coming week, would be looking for opportunity to long the EUR if the support @ 1.4570 holds. Going below 1.4570, we could see the EUR test 1.4450 regions.

For JPY, if support @ 108.12 is broken, we could see JPY going down to 105.50 regions. Then we could see the EUR start to move up.

Trade Journal - 19 Aug 08

The EUR could be bottoming out ... hence I looked for opportunities to long the EURUSD. On the 30 min chart, I saw the potential BKO and I made my entry when market broke the BKO.

Entry: 1.4705
SL: 1.4620 (This was later shifted to 1.4705, when the price went to 1.4805)

Result: THis trade was closed at breakeven when EUR retraced back down to 1.4670 regions after hitting a high of 1.4805.

Sigh ... should not have adjusted my SL to breakeven so soon ... Now the EUR is trading at 1.4885 as I am typing this trade journal ... SIGH.

Now I wil have to look for another opportunity to long the EUR again with the target price around 1.5300.

Cell Group

Attended another forex PowerWave cell group to brush up on my PowerWave and to get the latest update on the wave count. I must say, counting waves is a lot harder than it seems. However, if we get the basics right, spoting the wave is as easy as ABC.

The market has been erratic last week and a lot of us have lost track of the wave. It was a good thing that I attended this cell group. Learnt a new "pattern" for wave counting and after that saw the light at the end of the tunnel !!! Suddenly, the wave was there again.

Now to exercise some patience to wait for the right moment to enter the market and ride the wave.

Trade Journal - 14 Aug 08

Today, I shorted the USDJPY at 109.51 after seeing that the JPY has retraced to near 110 regions. Felt that it should start to turn south soon.

Entry: Short @ 109.51
SL: 109.88
Target: 107.90

Result: JPY decided to move up instead of down and took out my trade. Ended with a 37 pip loss.

Some views on AUD/USD. This pair formed a doji star on 13 Aug. It looks like it could stop going down further. Would look to catch a bottom shadow (PowerWave) to go long. If it does retrace up, I think we could be looking at around 0.9400 before it continues the downward move.

(Afternote: AUD/USD ended the week with another doji. Looks like the market is still not showing any direction yet. )

Week of 4 Aug - 8 Aug

Well, another week gone. Did not enter a lot of trades this week. The only trade I had was shorting the USDJPY. The USDJPY made an unexpected bull run and I ended with a 30 pip loss. Thanks to lessons on money mgmt, I survived to trade another day.

Some personal views ...

USDJPY - Looks like it will continue to go up to at least 110.86, before we can see any weakness in the USDJPY.

EURUSD - This pair looks like a soaring bird which has its wings suddenly clipped off. Fell like a rock from the sky. I don't think the bear run is over just yet. It closed the week at 1.5017. It could retrace in the coming week, since it has been falling without any retracement the entire week.

Trade Journal - 6 Aug 08

My short order on the USD/JPY was triggered @ 108.45 as the JPY continues to rise. I was of the opinion that JPY will test the previous high of 108.57 before turning down.

Looks like JPY is not ready to turn down yet as it now shoots past 109.00 (as I write this journal). Luckily I had my stop loss in place ... ended up with a loss of 30 pips.

My opinion on USD/JPY -
At the rate the JPY is rising, I think the JPY could continue up to around 110.00 (psychological resistance) before turning down. Going beyond 110.00 could see JPY test 110.85.

Entry: 108.45
Stop Loss: 108.75

Result: -30 pips

PS: The market is always right ... be in its good books and you shall stand to gain.