The US Unemployment claims came in higher than expected. This has caused the USD/JPY to fall upon the announcement of the numbers.
On the day chart, USDJPY is currently in a down trend of the current wave (starting from a high of 100.54. I am expecting the USDJPY to fall to 92.80 - 94.20 regions, where I think the USDJPY will pause and then start to move up.
I shorted the USDJPY when the Unemployment Claims figures was announced.
Short entry: 95.31
Target price: 92.90
As I type this journal, USDJPY is currently trading at 94.68. I am using a manual trailing stop loss. Hope the USDJPY will drop to my target price.
21 Nov 08 -
Sigh!! The JPY shot up to 96.23 just past midnight and took out my trade by hitting my stop loss. Then it started its sharp fall to a low of 93.54 at around 5.30am (Singapore time). That was how volatile the market is. Thankfully I adjusted my stop loss to lock in some profits when I went to bed. This just shows the importance of having stop loss in every trade.
Summary of my JPY trade:
Short Entry: 95.31
Trailing Stop Loss: 94.73
Profit/loss: +58 pips.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Important principles a novice trader need to know
What's the first things a novice trader needs to know to survive in the "jungle" (the market).
1. The market is always right. Never think that the market is wrong. Never go against the market. Let the market tell you what it is doing. Respect the market. - How many times have we entered a trade thinking that we made the right trade and yet the market goes against us? Then we always blame the market, but ourselves.
2. Never rush into a trade or over trade. Never enter trades when you are not in the right fame of mind - For those of us holding full-time jobs, the mind just gets too tired to think by the end of the day. Sometimes we are just too eager to trade, 'cos we want to catch every move in the market.
3. Always enter trades with predetermined stop loss (Good money management strategies). Have predetermined profit targets, if possible. If not, trail with manual stop loss adjustment.
Trading is about staying in the market long enough to make a profit. ie. capital preservation is important. Of course, having a good trading plan will always go a long way in ensuring you do not over trade, and that your capital is preserved.
1. The market is always right. Never think that the market is wrong. Never go against the market. Let the market tell you what it is doing. Respect the market. - How many times have we entered a trade thinking that we made the right trade and yet the market goes against us? Then we always blame the market, but ourselves.
2. Never rush into a trade or over trade. Never enter trades when you are not in the right fame of mind - For those of us holding full-time jobs, the mind just gets too tired to think by the end of the day. Sometimes we are just too eager to trade, 'cos we want to catch every move in the market.
3. Always enter trades with predetermined stop loss (Good money management strategies). Have predetermined profit targets, if possible. If not, trail with manual stop loss adjustment.
Trading is about staying in the market long enough to make a profit. ie. capital preservation is important. Of course, having a good trading plan will always go a long way in ensuring you do not over trade, and that your capital is preserved.
Friday, November 14, 2008
EUR/USD - 14 Nov
The EUR/USD has reached a high of 1.2856 on 13 Nov 08. Since then, it has started to come down. In fact it has retraced to 1.2611 (between 50% and 66% retracments) today.
I managed enter a long trade on the EUR at 1.2630. Using the PowerWave, I am projecting a target price of around 1.3050, if the EUR starts to move up from 1.2611. Long views to be abandoned for the moment if EUR falls below 1.2611 as it will drop further to test 1.2450.
Update on 15Nov:
This trade was closed when the price came back down from near 1.2800 (around 3-4am SG time) and hit my trailing stop loss. The EUR rose to a high of 1.2797 at about 3-4am and then nosedived in the last hour to close the week at 1.2690.
A summary of my EUR/USD long trade:
Entry: 1.2630
Trailing Stop Loss: 1.2660 (shifted just before I went to bed)
Profit/Loss: +30 pips.
I managed enter a long trade on the EUR at 1.2630. Using the PowerWave, I am projecting a target price of around 1.3050, if the EUR starts to move up from 1.2611. Long views to be abandoned for the moment if EUR falls below 1.2611 as it will drop further to test 1.2450.
Update on 15Nov:
This trade was closed when the price came back down from near 1.2800 (around 3-4am SG time) and hit my trailing stop loss. The EUR rose to a high of 1.2797 at about 3-4am and then nosedived in the last hour to close the week at 1.2690.
A summary of my EUR/USD long trade:
Entry: 1.2630
Trailing Stop Loss: 1.2660 (shifted just before I went to bed)
Profit/Loss: +30 pips.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
FX Forecast - 12 Nov 08
EUR/USD
EUR has been testing the patience of traders looking to long the EUR this week. EUR broke below the 1.2650 support (which I identified as a recent support), and it fell to a low of 1.2482 and currently trades at 1.2522 (as I type this blog). Would still be holding my view of longing the EUR as long as the support at 1.2329 holds. Initial targets for long trades are 1.3440 regions and 1.4400 regions.
USD/JPY
JPY has started to turn down from the top of 100.54. It is currently trading at 96.20 (as I type this). I predict that this drop will bring the JPY to 94.20 regions before the JPY will turn upwards again.
EUR has been testing the patience of traders looking to long the EUR this week. EUR broke below the 1.2650 support (which I identified as a recent support), and it fell to a low of 1.2482 and currently trades at 1.2522 (as I type this blog). Would still be holding my view of longing the EUR as long as the support at 1.2329 holds. Initial targets for long trades are 1.3440 regions and 1.4400 regions.
USD/JPY
JPY has started to turn down from the top of 100.54. It is currently trading at 96.20 (as I type this). I predict that this drop will bring the JPY to 94.20 regions before the JPY will turn upwards again.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
EUR outlook - Technical analysis (11 Nov 08)
On the daily chart, the EUR is in a consolidation phase. It looks like it is forming a triangle pattern. A breakout in either direction is imminent and it could happen soon ... probably within this week.
I am of the opinion that the EUR will break up, since the EUR has come down a long way from the high of 1.6035. Furthermore, prices are also near the uptrend trendline drawn from the bottom at 1.2329.
Would look for long entries as long as price does not fall below 1.2650. Alternatively, if price breaks above 1.2800, the EUR would shoot up. 1st target would be 1.3297. If EUR breaks 1.3297, then the next target would be 1.4450 regions.
I am of the opinion that the EUR will break up, since the EUR has come down a long way from the high of 1.6035. Furthermore, prices are also near the uptrend trendline drawn from the bottom at 1.2329.
Would look for long entries as long as price does not fall below 1.2650. Alternatively, if price breaks above 1.2800, the EUR would shoot up. 1st target would be 1.3297. If EUR breaks 1.3297, then the next target would be 1.4450 regions.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
EUR long entry triggered - 4 Nov 08
Today, the EUR moved down and triggered my long at at 1.2550, which was between 66% to 80% retracement of the last upward move from 1.2330.
Entry price: 1.2550
Initial Stop loss: 1.2485
Current Stop loss: 1.2685 (to lock in profits)
Target Price: 1.3480 (to be reviewed as the market progresses)
EUR has since move back up to 1.2824 (as I type this trade log). Stop loss has now been shifted to 1.2685 to lock in profits.
It feels good to be on the right side of the trade (after staying on the sidelines for some time). Furthermore, the entry price was a very good.
6 Nov: This trade was closed when the EUR retraced downwards and hit my trailing stop loss @ 1.2950. It was still a good trade for me. This trade closed with a 400 pip profit for me.
Entry price: 1.2550
Initial Stop loss: 1.2485
Current Stop loss: 1.2685 (to lock in profits)
Target Price: 1.3480 (to be reviewed as the market progresses)
EUR has since move back up to 1.2824 (as I type this trade log). Stop loss has now been shifted to 1.2685 to lock in profits.
It feels good to be on the right side of the trade (after staying on the sidelines for some time). Furthermore, the entry price was a very good.
6 Nov: This trade was closed when the EUR retraced downwards and hit my trailing stop loss @ 1.2950. It was still a good trade for me. This trade closed with a 400 pip profit for me.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Another week gone
Now to look forward to another exciting week ahead.
The EUR/USD seems to have found some support around 1.2330, after prices move up from the pincer bottom and reached a high of 1.3297, before closing the week at 1.2742. This closing price also falls between the retracement levels of 50% to 66%.
For the coming week, I would be looking to catch long on the EUR for a target price of about 1.3200, as long as 1.2330 holds as support.
USD/JPY closed the week at 98.49, after hitting a high of 99.69. Would be looking to pick long between the regions of 95.30 and 93.90.
The EUR/USD seems to have found some support around 1.2330, after prices move up from the pincer bottom and reached a high of 1.3297, before closing the week at 1.2742. This closing price also falls between the retracement levels of 50% to 66%.
For the coming week, I would be looking to catch long on the EUR for a target price of about 1.3200, as long as 1.2330 holds as support.
USD/JPY closed the week at 98.49, after hitting a high of 99.69. Would be looking to pick long between the regions of 95.30 and 93.90.
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