Forecast for the week - 19 Jul 2010

The EUR hit a high of 1.3006 by the end of last week and then fell to close the week at 1.2925.   At the same time, it formed a doji.   This could be a reversal signal.  

For the coming week, would be good to try to sell the EUR with target around the 1.2700 regions.  

   

EUR continues to head south

It seems like nothing can help stop the EUR from falling.  Not even the bail out package for Greece.  EUR/USD simply continues to fall under the influence of gravity.  

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.2380, after falling from above 1.30 regions.   The EUR is not the only pair that was falling, the GBP/USD was also falling.  The USD/JPY was still indecisive to which direction it wants to go.

USD/JPY formed a star for the week, ending with a short rally up to 92.32, after hitting the week's low of 91.79.

EUR/USD:  I would still favour to short this pair.  Possible entry @ 1.2600 regions or 1.2450 regions.  EUR could test 1.2329 and if this is broken, then we could see EUR go below 1.20.

USD/JPY: Probably continue to consolidate.  However, I would try to go short if it retraces up to 92.50-93.00 regions.  I feel this pair will fall to 90.80 regions before moving up.  93.00 should provide some resistance.


       

Forecast - 3 May

The EUR bounced up after hitting a low of 1.314 and closed the week at 1.3313.  The technical outlook seems to be recovering but fundamentals may further delay the upward recovery of the EUR/USD.

From the Weekly chart, there's still a possibility of the EUR testing 1.2990 before turning up.   Personally, I feel that this is likely to happen given the problems the EU are having now.

On the Daily chart, the EUR is still in a down trend.

In the coming week, EUR could test 1.3200 before going up again.  

Good to look for shorts if EUR goes up to 1.3450 regions.   Any open shorts should tighten stop loss in case the EUR shoots up to 1.3450 regions before continuing its journey down to 1.3200 or even 1.2990.

    

EUR bounces higher for the week of 19 Apr to 23 Apr

The EUR/USD traded higher for the week.  It recovered from the bottom of 1.3201 and closed the week at 1.3376.  This is probably a small recovery and whether or not this recovery can be sustained, it will depend on what happens in  Greece.

The EUR still looked weak and could potentialliy drop to 1.2995 regions.

Resistance is still strong at 1.3600 and the immediate resistance at 1.34 looked to be tested in the coming week ahead.

NFP release on 2 Apr 2010

It's been some time since I made a trade. This week should see the market do some consolidation and wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll data before showing any new direction.

On the weekly chart, EUR broke below 1.3350 and dropped to 1.3267. If EUR falls below this bottom with the release of NFP data, we could see the EUR fall to 1.2990 regions before moving up again.

Would wait for NFP release to see which direction the market is heading before making any trades.

No trades if you are not clear on the direction of the market.

EUR - 25 Jan 09 to 30 Jan 09

The EUR/USD came down to my predicted target region of 1.4020 - 50. It then rebounded to close last week's trading at 1.4140.

For the coming week, the EUR/USD could move back up to the regions of 1.4300 to 1.4400 before turning back down again.

Good to try to long EUR/USD around 1.4100 - 30 with a tight stop loss. If not, wait patiently to try to short the EUR/USD around 1.4300-50.

EUR heading down?

The EUR dropped below 1.4300 this morning as I type this. It looks quite probable that the EUR is likely to continue to retrace and my 1st target would be around 1.4020.

Let the market tell you where it is heading. Do not chase it. Be patient.

Would be good to look for long entries around 1.4020 with controlled stop loss.