EUR continues to head south

It seems like nothing can help stop the EUR from falling.  Not even the bail out package for Greece.  EUR/USD simply continues to fall under the influence of gravity.  

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.2380, after falling from above 1.30 regions.   The EUR is not the only pair that was falling, the GBP/USD was also falling.  The USD/JPY was still indecisive to which direction it wants to go.

USD/JPY formed a star for the week, ending with a short rally up to 92.32, after hitting the week's low of 91.79.

EUR/USD:  I would still favour to short this pair.  Possible entry @ 1.2600 regions or 1.2450 regions.  EUR could test 1.2329 and if this is broken, then we could see EUR go below 1.20.

USD/JPY: Probably continue to consolidate.  However, I would try to go short if it retraces up to 92.50-93.00 regions.  I feel this pair will fall to 90.80 regions before moving up.  93.00 should provide some resistance.


       

Forecast - 3 May

The EUR bounced up after hitting a low of 1.314 and closed the week at 1.3313.  The technical outlook seems to be recovering but fundamentals may further delay the upward recovery of the EUR/USD.

From the Weekly chart, there's still a possibility of the EUR testing 1.2990 before turning up.   Personally, I feel that this is likely to happen given the problems the EU are having now.

On the Daily chart, the EUR is still in a down trend.

In the coming week, EUR could test 1.3200 before going up again.  

Good to look for shorts if EUR goes up to 1.3450 regions.   Any open shorts should tighten stop loss in case the EUR shoots up to 1.3450 regions before continuing its journey down to 1.3200 or even 1.2990.